For decades, the annual television industry ceremony has been carried out in the same way.
Thousands of advertising and television executives travel between major cultural centers in New York.
Lincoln Center Radio City Hall Carnegie Hall-
Network managers screen premiers on their hottest new shows (
"24: Legacy" on Fox "!
"Designated Survivor" on ABC "! );
Their biggest star (Jennifer Lopez!
Kerry Washington! )
And disclose which items will go during prime time
Schedule for fall.
After a continuous night of high hedonism
Peter Luger's steak, Tao's mango Chili Martini and Nicki Minaj in Terminal 5
The people of the advertisement and the people of the TV started the real business transaction 30-
The second attraction during prime time business hours.
But when the whole shebang starts seriously on Monday morning, there is a potential sense of seasickness, because every year at this point in time television faces an unstoppable existential problem: how long can it last like this?
This is what you did.
Maybe it was last night when you turned the TV into Apple TV to watch commercial ads.
Fly on the net for free "House of Cards", or when you carefully read the recorded "Saturday Night Live" after work on Monday --
Forward through every real ad.
You may have completely forgotten the TV, but watched YouTube.
When you start to use all the new technologies, watch the show in your own way, and stop watching commercial ads, you question the way an industry works for about $70 billion, the industry has been very stable for decades.
Billions of dollars have given television room to keep its business going in this change --
Like the newspapers can't see, the tsunami.
But some sort of liquidation seems inevitable. In the not-too-
In the long run, Internet TV may not be like today.
As Apple chief executive Tim Cook predicted, maybe you'll go through the app, not the channel, and skip shows that don't have a business outage or a hard time --and-fast 30-and 60-
Time limit for minutes.
This will have significant consequences for those who have something to sell and still think that TV advertising is the best way to do it --
For the gatekeepers of traditional television, it is also a huge consequence.
In the short term, as in the week of the upcoming TV fringe policy, betting on where it will end in the end, and how much liquidation we have received, will push the negotiations, buy more than $9 billion in advertising ahead of time for the upcoming fall.
The opening ceremony came from one of the largest advertising agencies, Magna worldwide.
Two weeks ago, the company told the Wall Street Journal that it transferred $0. 25 billion in advertising revenue from customers from traditional television to YouTube.
This is a fraction of the billions of dollars that Magna spends on television every year for customers, including Coca-Cola.
Coca-Cola and Fiat Chrysler
But the investment in television in digital media is big enough to be truly symbolic.
Magna pointed out that the decline in the old
Among those between the ages of 18 and 49, old-fashioned television viewing is important for advertisers.
"We are trying to signal the market that it is not as normal as usual," David Cohen, president of the United States at Magna Global, told me last week.
"Consumers have moved out of linear TV in the last few years and we need to acknowledge that.
"Executives at online TV think the announcement is another thing: it's a smart negotiating strategy just as the front line starts.
They can point out the motive.
Like all my speeches in this column about the future of TV advertising, industry executives and analysts expect ad rates to soar for the first time in the next few years. David F.
Poltrack, CBS's chief research officer, said it was partly because advertisers did too much last year.
They are obsessed with digital advertising and are committed to reducing business time in emerging markets.
Retail sales were disappointing in 2015.
Economists point to factors such as rising medical costs and stagnant wages. But Mr.
The withdrawal of advertising also played a role, Poltrack said.
At least to some extent, advertisers seem to agree, especially in the debate about the real impact of digital media. (
As American Express told the Advertising Age last month, it found that the effect of a day of radio advertising is equivalent to the effect of two weeks of digital advertising. )
Over the next few months, advertisers jump back on TV to find higher prices than they did when they first started spending more money. Mr.
Driven by a basic lesson, Poltrack says, this heralds a strong lead: "If fewer people see your ads, you'll sell less.
Still, one more question is who will really "see your ad" because it's easier to adjust the ad now than ever before.
TV executives like him
Poltrack spent a lot of time working on this issue.
Some findings are counter-intuitive.
For example, Sir.
Poltrack says two things.
More than 30 viewers watch with a second screen on their hands or legs.
However, these screens may distract their users so much that they forget to be quick
Forward past ads in recorded shows.
It turns out that even if viewers stare at other devices, they absorb information from television in the vast majority. Poltrack said.
Nielsen data shows that people between the ages of 18 and 49 skip less than half of the ads recorded (42 percent).
But the two different sets of Nielsen data I see also show that their overall business ratings are down by 8-11% compared to last year, depending on how you split.
These numbers lead to people like Joe Marchese, who is in charge of the Fox network Group's development of new advertising methods (
For example, provide viewers with the option to view an interactive ad at the beginning of the show in exchange for no more ad interruptions thereafter)
As he did to me last week, the statement "social contracts with consumers have been broken --
They don't want to see advertisements.
"This explains the sense of urgency I found on Thursday morning at 51 th Floor, 30 Rockefeller Plaza, where NBCUniversal advertising sales Chairman Linda arcarino is overseeing the final touches of the pre-presentation of NBCUniversal. Ms.
Yaccarino plans to make the biggest change in NBC's presentation in decades.
It will focus on the program mix on NBC, NBC's sister cable network, and cable, rather than allowing advertisers to browse NBC's night schedule in isolation
Demand systems like its parent company, Comcast, will reach a specific audience. (
It will also get a choice from investment partners BuzzFeed and Vox Media. )
"You can't hear it at 8: 00 on Monday night;
At nine on Tuesday, "she said.
"You will see our content presented in a way that the audience is looking for and consuming.
"Her assumption is that today's strong business breakthrough will not last long in its current form.
"I told my whole team, 'We catch them with our nails, 'she said. '.
That's why NBC announced last month that it will remove about 30% of its business time from next season's "Saturday Night Live.
It will seek to make money by giving advertisers occasional opportunities to sponsor Bitcoin based on anything they sell.
If done right (
One assumption is "S. N. L.
Producer Lorne Michaels will also accept
The audience will not even notice sponsorship, which may be a spoof based on the products of advertisers.
This is where it comes back to us.
I said "we" because I also like my TV commercials better. free.
In addition to programs on public TV or subscription services like Netflix and HBO, ads pay for programs we like.
If we cut this off, we will push executives in the TV industry to a new level.
Maybe we think it's a fair deal.